![]() Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources OPCM believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and the information may be incomplete or condensed. The information contained in this report is for informational purposes only and should not be deemed investment advice. Each investor should select asset classes for investment based on his/her own goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. There is no guarantee that the investment strategies presented herein will work under all market conditions and investors should evaluate their ability to invest for the long-term. None of the data presented herein constitutes a recommendation or solicitation to invest in any particular investment strategy and should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. The opinions expressed herein are strictly those of Osborne Partners Capital Management, LLC ("OPCM") as of the date of the material and is subject to change. We will most likely always be dancing this minuet.ġ Kingston Trio, “The Merry Minuet” By Sheldon Harnick, …from the Hungry i, Capital Records,1959 We were worried about the same thing 60 years ago and most likely we will be worried about it 60 years from now. This could change given uncertainties in world governments and extended climate issues. An aging population spends less and technology continues to drive down prices. The Federal Reserve is tapping on the brakes with bond sales and measured interest rate increases. During the current expansionary phase of the economy, we welcome a little more inflation, and at this point do not see it getting out of control. ![]() Companies have more flexibility in pricing, financial firms profits increase, stock markets generally rise, and bond yields go higher. ![]() Rising inflation is not all bad for our economy, as long as it does not spiral upwards. Home prices are now above the 2006 peak as measured by the Case Shiller national median and climbing. This weakening Dollar will increase the price of imported goods. The Dollar has dropped sharply this year against the Euro, the Yuan and the Mexican Peso. Both the skilled work force and unskilled labor are in high demand, which will drive up wages. We are starting to see signs of accelerating inflation. Slow steady growth, low inflation/low interest rates and full employment seem to have become the norm. that has not been volatile has been inflation. These offsetting forces have kept inflation in check for some time, but have wreaked havoc in many sectors of the economy. Offsetting this is mass migration away from developing countries, rising nationalism worldwide and increasing demand for workers at both ends of the skill scale. An aging work force in the developed countries, accelerating and disruptive technological change, urbanization and global trade are dominating economies. The major economic forces in the world today are at a crossroads. Catastrophes and maniacal dictators have always been with us and yet so far we seem to be able to power through it all. I find the fact that the song was written in the late 1950’s somewhat comforting. “…What nature doesn’t do to us will be done by our fellow man.” Sound familiar? This last quarter seemed to echo those fears. It started like this: “…There’s hurricanes in Florida…” and it ended with thoughts about the atomic bomb. The cold war era song by the Kingston Trio “The Merry Minuet” 1 was first performed in San Francisco at the hungry i nightclub almost 60 years ago.
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